Handicapping Injuries
PRO INFO SPORTS takes all factors into
consideration when handicapping sports investment opportunities
for our
Sports Handicapping Services, including injuries. We
also strongly recommend clients give these significant elements
a final check for any late-breaking developments prior to
wagering, by reviewing our
Injury Reports.
While it is important to be aware of and to consider
injuries when analyzing games, PRO INFO SPORTS
contends that the general sports gambling public often
over-reacts when a star player is out of a contest, providing
solid investment opportunities for us to deliver to our
clients.
Linesmakers usually adjust the spread several points to
compensate for an injury to a big-name player to invite a
balance of wagers on both teams. Frequently, we will form a
strong contrarian opinion in such situations for several
reasons.
First of all, there simply is not as big of a talent
difference between the 1st and 2nd-stringers as the public
perceives. College reserves are former high school stars, while
pro reserves are former college stars. They come in fresh,
rested, and eager to "play, perform, and prove" their
value.
Secondly, the other players on the squad can usually be
counted on to pull together for additional concentration,
execution, and teamwork. They know that they have to perform at
a higher level in their star's absence, they don't want to let
the hurt teammate down, and/or they want to show that they are
more than a "one-man team".
Finally, their opponent may well be ill-prepared emotionally
for the game, thinking they can relax and knowing the challenge
of facing the other team's star player is not there.
These factors are most prominent and under-valued by
the public gambling on sports in the first game missed by
an injured star player. The handicapping value is lessened in
the succeeding games if the injury is prolonged. The lines are
re-adjusted resulting from the solid play by the reserve and
teammates, opponents not overlooking them, and the eventual
physical, emotional, and psychological let down of the team
with the injured star.
Besides star player injuries, unit injuries are a very
substantial consideration that we take into account when
handicapping games. Having 2 or more "non-star" players from
one unit of the team injured is usually much more detrimental
to a squad than if a single "superstar" is out. While not many
public star football players toil on the offensive or defensive
lines, a team with a hurting and depleted line unit may not be
able to run or pass the ball effectively, or be able to stop
the other team's attack, especially if the injuries play into
their opponent's strength. An example would be a high-powered
passing team likely having great success against a team with a
hobbled secondary.
These injury principles are generalities and all
factors must be considered when analyzing sports investment
opportunities, but the monitoring and scrutinizing of these
situations and circumstances are examples of how PRO
INFO SPORTS gains a significant handicapping advantage
and uses the information to help determine the strength of
certain selections according to our Money
Management strategy.
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