Successful sports gaming has as much to do with money management as it does with sports. It is no exaggeration when PRO INFO SPORTS declares the following: A positive return on Investment is just as dependent upon rational financial administration as it is upon Handicapping acumen. In fact, the absence of sound money management or use of a flawed system can negate even a long-term advantage in any type of investing and result in a net loss.
Profitable money management via any potentially lucrative method requires discipline. It is critical to first establish available risk capital. This is the amount of money assigned for investing. It should never be from funds reserved for basic living expenses. It is money that if completely lost would not alter one's standard of living. Discipline is also required in sports gaming for investing the proper amount of each wager as determined by a sound strategy and not deviating from the game plan. For maximum financial rewards, a suitable fiscal plan must be precisely planned, followed and executed.
After a thorough analysis, PRO INFO SPORTS has developed our own unique powerful money management strategy. In much the same manner as we examine potential investment opportunities, we gathered pertinent information, computed and scrutinized the data, and have taken the most logical and lucrative position. Just as our handicapping opinions are often contrarian, meaning contrary to the prevailing "wisdom" of the wagering public, our revolutionary money management system may be considered contrarian as well. Of course, whether it is considered conventional or not has absolutely no bearing on its success. It is not based on emotions, biases, or misconceptions, but wholly upon the numbers.
Looking at specifics, there are myriad and conflicting opinions in the sports investing industry regarding optimal wagering. Some endorse a flat betting system wherein the same amount is wagered on each game throughout a season. Others advise wagering a set percentage of bankroll on each event. Differing perspectives on percentage investing include what the fixed percentage should be (ranging from 1 to 15%) and how often the bankroll percentage should be re-calculated. While there is a measure of mathematical merit to some of these ideas, none solitarily go far enough in maximizing profits while also providing substantial downside protection. They are either too fiscally conservative, too risky, or in some cases even both.
To illustrate the latter, consider a flat bettor with a starting bankroll of $1000 who decides to wager $20 (2% of his starting bankroll) on each play through a season. If, due to poor investments and/or bad luck, his funds were to decline by 50% to $500, his next $20 wager would constitute 4% of his bankroll. On the other hand, if he doubled his original bankroll to $2000, his next $20 wager would only be a capital risk of 1%. Flat betting or any such scheme that results in incrementally higher-percentage wagers the more you lose and incrementally lower-percentage wagers the more you win, quickly compounds losses and diminishes gains. Simply put, it's a fiscal failure.
PRO INFO SPORTS Money Management applies the superior investing principle of wagering a percentage of available capital rather than a constant flat dollar amount. Some "pros" try to combine the opposing theories by advising that a set percentage of a starting bankroll be wagered on games until the total funds are increased or decreased to a degree (50%, for example), at which point the percent is recalculated from the new bankroll amount. This is only a slight improvement on the aforementioned pure flat betting plan since, after the first wager is either won or lost in such a scenario, the distinct advantage of percentage betting is lost. The inherent flaw of flat betting (increasingly higher-percentage wagers the more money lost, and increasingly lower-percentage wagers the more money won) is then forced into effect. The illogical disparity only increases until the static percentage is finally recalculated from the new bankroll and not the one of days, weeks, or even months ago. Since percentage wagering is clearly superior to flat betting it is most financially favorable to reconcile the fixed percentage of bankroll before each wager to avoid the mistaken use of a flat betting scheme for any number of games.
Having established the superiority of percentage wagering over any type of flat betting, the consideration becomes one of determining what percentage is ideal and whether it ever varies from game to game. Many percentage bettors incorrectly presume that a winning percentage above 52.5% (the break even point due to the 10% sportsbook "vigorish") will ultimately return a profit regardless of what bankroll percentage is invested, as long as it is consistently and continually applied, and that with a better-than-52.5% winning percentage an increasingly higher percentage of bankroll wagered will produce increasingly larger profits. The potential financial pitfalls of this misconception can be illustrated by the following hypothetical gaming example:
Two friends enter a casino and are intrigued by a new card game called "Pick Your Percentage". The game features a dealer taking a single deck of cards and turning the cards face-up, one at a time, while the players wager on each card. All 10's, face cards, and aces are winners for the house while the cards numbered 2-9 are winners for the players; thus, out of 52 betting opportunities the players would be guaranteed 32 winners against only 20 losers (a 61.5% winning percentage). To play, each bettor simply has to declare a starting bankroll and what constant percentage of his bankroll will be wagered on each card. The gentlemen sit down at the table to play through a deck. The first man declares a starting bankroll of $1000 and a wager of 25% of bankroll per card. The second bettor also declares a starting bankroll of $1000 but states he will risk 50% of his bankroll on each card, assuming he will at least double his friend's winnings. Despite wagering on the same exact cards as they are turned up, the 25% bettor quadruples his bankroll and ends the game with over $4000, while the 50% bettor has lost more than half of his original $1000 bankroll.
What the 50% bankroll bettor (and the average sports investor) failed to understand is that for the greatest return on any series of wagering opportunities there is a precise percentage of bankroll that should be risked. Even with more winners than losers, betting considerably more than the "magic number" will ultimately result in a net loss. At PRO INFO SPORTS we have named this ideal figure the "PEAK PROFIT PERCENTAGE" or "PPP". The sequence of winners and losers in the card game or even in sporting events have no bearing whatsoever on the results of the application of the PPP principle. Using the same percentages, the outcome will be the same every time, regardless of win-loss pattern.
The PRO INFO SPORTS Peak Profit Percentage is determined by the expected winning percentage for a series of wagering events. In the card game model, the anticipated winning percentage for 52 bets is 61.5% which has a corresponding PPP of 23%. Any percent of bankroll wagered less or more than 23% in such a scenario will not be as profitable, and gains are eventually turned into losses if the PPP is exceeded too greatly. This is why the card game's 25% player enjoyed a 400%+ ROI (Return On Investment), while the 50% bettor suffered a -50%+ ROI. The Peak Profit Percentage concept can be a difficult one to comprehend but the numbers do not lie. All professional investors (stocks, bonds, sports gaming, etc.) should be mindful of this numerical phenomenon and use it to their profitable advantage.
Since the PRO INFO SPORTS Peak Profit Percentage is determined by anticipated winning percentage, having a realistic expectation in sports wagering is imperative. The "scamdicappers" claiming long-term winning opinions of 67% or better should not be relied upon for handicapping or investment advice. Of course, these self-proclaimed experts would never suggest a gamble of anything near 28% of a bankroll on one of their "superlocks" or "games of the year", yet 28% is indeed the PPP for a 67% winning expectation. Is it plausible for these touts to be brilliant, borderline-psychic when it comes to handicapping but completely devoid of basic money management awareness? We find it much more likely that their true winning percentage is much, much lower than advertised.
At PRO INFO SPORTS we are confident that we will to continue to offer our clients a winning expectation of 55%-60% for our higher-rated plays. Looking at the figures within that range, a Peak Profit Percentage of 5% can be calculated from the low end (55% winners) and a PPP of 15% at the high end (60% winners). Taking the riskiest position with a $1000 bankroll (wagering 15% per game) would actually result in a net loss of $348 after 100 events if the winning percentage actually turned out to be at the low end of 55%. A sports investor should not be penalized for "only" producing 55% winners. On the other hand, taking the most conservative position (5% wagers) with a $1000 bankroll will show a profit after 100 games, ranging from $148 (with 55% winners) to $944 (60% winners), so we find that there is no overall advantage of risking more than 5% of current bankroll on even the strongest of selections. Applying the same investment principles to our remaining plays which have a slightly lower (but still profitable) winning expectation, we have developed a Money Play « RATING SYSTEM with corresponding PPPs:
Money Play - PPP
7« - 5% (of Bankroll)
6½« - 4.75%
6« - 4.5%
5½« - 4.25%
5« - 4%
4½« - 3.75%
4« - 3.5%
3½« - 3.25%
3« - 3%
2½« - 2.75%
2« - 2.5%
1½« - 2.25%
1« - 2%
On days with a very limited schedule, such as a Monday in September, we will at least offer an Opinion Selection with the usual comprehensive information, analysis, and advice if no investment opportunities are rated high enough to be a «SELECTION. These are recreational wagers on marginal games; therefore, no more than 1% of current bankroll should be wagered on any such contest. Opinion Selections do not count as official PRO INFO SPORTS selections and may passed on altogether if the client prefers. Other "advisors", oblivious to the Peak Profit Percentage principle, contend that only 1% should ever be wagered on any game, and that anything more than that is much too risky. We would refer them to the laws of mathematics. For example, wagering 5% per event on the 7« SELECTIONS will only be a losing proposition if their winning percentage slides down to 53%, at which point a starting bankroll of $1000 would still only be trimmed by $70 after 100 wagers. Placing 1% wagers against a starting bankroll of $1000 with a 53% winning percentage would show a profit of only $8 after 100 events. A winning percentage of 52.5% or less will not show a profit regardless of how small the bankroll percent wagered is, so we find that there is no overall advantage of risking just 1% on every game. This is the comprehensive and analytical manner in which PRO INFO SPORTS narrowed the recommended investment amounts for our Money Plays to 2-5% of current bankroll.
Obviously it would be most profitable for every game to rate highly enough to be a 7« SELECTION and wagered accordingly; however, this is not the reality in sports gaming. Actually, only a few opportunities are ideal enough to earn that distinction, and only playing such contests would not offer the best potential for long-term monetary gains. Profitability in sports investing is realized through the consistent and constant compounding of modest gains, not via a high winning percentage over a few games.
One difference between the previous card game scenario and sports wagering is that while there was only one betting event at a time at the card table, there will quite often be multiple sports investment opportunities available at the same time. After determining that 2-5% of current bankroll is the PRO INFO SPORTS PPP to wager per event, we resolved the question of how many such events would be financially prudent to wager simultaneously. It was calculated that putting to work up to 25% of a bankroll at one time on a consistent basis offers the greatest potential for compounding profits without being unnecessarily risky if enough worthy investment opportunities are available. Due to the sharpness of the oddsmakers' lines, the majority of selections will be made from the lower half of the « RATING SYSTEM scale. We use this to our advantage by employing the multiple lower-rated selections as hedge investments against the few higher-rated selections and vice-versa. The Money Plays that risk a higher bankroll percentage are properly balanced by the more numerous lower-bankroll percentage investments. The following gaming analogy demonstrates the importance of using such a strategy:
Imagine 7 barrels, each containing 1000 marbles. The first barrel has 600 marbles marked "WINNER" and 400 marbles marked "LOSER", while each successive barrel has 10 fewer WINNER marbles and, thus, 10 more LOSER marbles. The last barrel would have a slimmest majority of WINNERS (540) and highest number of LOSERS (460). As in sports gaming, the object is to win as much money in the shortest amount of time as possible by wagering on and selecting WINNER marbles. To truly imitate wagering conditions we must also stipulate that the contestant is allowed incrementally more wagering chances with the barrels that contain a higher percentage of LOSERS. We can use the Peak Profit Percentage principle to determine what the proper bankroll wager would be for each of the barrels, which is what we have done with our « RATING SYSTEM; however, the question remains of how many bets to make on each barrel. The proper PPP on the barrels with 60% WINNERS should be wagered as often as allowed by the rules; however, while there is a 60% chance that the first marble selected from that barrel will be a WINNER, there is also a corresponding 40% chance it will be a LOSER. If a total of only 10 marbles are allowed to be taken from the barrel, 60% of them "should" be WINNERS; however, 10 marbles out of 1000 is a scant 1% sample and any combination of WINNER and LOSER marbles is quite possible. To increase the chances of drawing the same percentage of WINNERS as actually exist in any of the barrels, a higher number of marbles must be drawn. If the number of marbles allowed to be selected increase successively from the barrel with 60% WINNER marbles to the barrel with 54% WINNER marbles, so must the wagers. If 900 marbles are allowed to be selected from the barrel containing just 540 WINNER marbles, a winning advantage very close to 54% is nearly guaranteed. The greedy bettor will "play the lottery" with only the few marbles he gets to select from the barrel with 60% WINNERS and hope he gets lucky with high bankroll bets. This is like a sports gaming investor who only plays the highest-rated play or 2 each week. The risk-adverse bettor will wager the minimal amount on all of the marbles and have to be satisfied with a very small profit. This is like a sports gaming investor who will only play a very small percentage of bankroll over many games each week. The balanced investor will implement the best of both strategies, using the proper PPPs to make higher bankroll percentage wagers on a select few games and lower bankroll percentage wagers over a greater number of games.
The balanced investor stands the best chance of showing the biggest profit over the shortest amount of time because of the lower-rated selections acting as a hedge against the higher-rated selections and vice-versa in case one of them does not return a profit. Utilizing our Peak Profit Percentages and « RATING SYSTEM, this is precisely what the PRO INFO SPORTS Money Management strategy is designed to do, and why it is important for clients to invest in all recommended Money Plays at the recommended bankroll percentage.
We feature up to 10 Money Plays per investment "session" every NBA day, NCAA Football Saturday, and NFL Sunday. Some days we may even have more than one session, such as a Saturday with early, afternoon, and late college football games. As previously stated, on days with a very limited schedule, we will at least offer an Opinion Selection with the usual comprehensive information, analysis, and advice if no investment opportunities are rated high enough to be a «SELECTION.
It must always be remembered that sports gaming is to be approached In a professional manner. One must be mentally and emotionally prepared for the ups and downs that will occur simply due to the laws of averages that are inherent with any type of investing.
We are supremely confident that putting our Money Management strategy to work with our Handicapping information, analysis, and advice will be a rewarding and enjoyable sports Investment venture. Exclusive PRO INFO SPORTS Products & Services include NBA, NFL & NCAA Football GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERTS and NFL & NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS.
