Home  BUY Sports Picks & Systems  FREE Sports Picks & Systems  Handicapping Services  Handicapping Articles  Members
 

Sports Handicapping Money Management

Expert Sports Picks, Sports Handicapping Systems, Free Sports Picks & Tips

Successful sports investment has as much to do with money management as it does with handicapping sports. It is no exaggeration when PRO INFO SPORTS declares the following:

A positive return on sports investing is just as dependent upon rational financial administration as it is upon sports handicapping acumen.

In fact, the absence of sound money management or use of a flawed system can negate even a long-term advantage in any type of investing and result in a net loss.

Profitable money management via any potentially lucrative method requires discipline. It is critical to first establish available risk capital. This is the amount of money assigned for investing. It should never be from funds reserved for basic living expenses. It is money that if completely lost would not alter one's standard of living.

Discipline is also required in sports gaming for investing the proper amount of each wager as determined by a sound strategy and not deviating from the game plan. For maximum financial rewards, a suitable fiscal plan must be precisely planned, followed and executed.

After a thorough analysis, PRO INFO SPORTS has developed our own unique powerful money management strategy. In much the same manner as we examine potential investment opportunities, we gathered pertinent information, computed and scrutinized the data, and have taken the most logical and lucrative position.

Just as our sports handicapping opinions and expert sports picks are often "contrarian", meaning contrary to the prevailing "wisdom" of the public gambling on sports, our revolutionary money management system may be considered contrarian as well.

Of course, whether it is considered conventional or not has absolutely no bearing on its success. It is not based on emotions, biases, or misconceptions, but wholly upon cold, hard numbers.

Flat Sports Gambling Systems

Looking at specifics, there are myriad and conflicting opinions in the sports handicapping and investing industry regarding optimal wagering. Some sports handicappers to avoid endorse a flat sports gambling system wherein the same amount is wagered on each game throughout a season. Others advise wagering a set percentage of bankroll on each event. Differing perspectives on percentage investing include what the fixed percentage should be (ranging from 1 to 15%) and how often the bankroll percentage should be re-calculated.

While there is a measure of mathematical merit to some of these ideas, none solitarily go far enough in maximizing profits while also providing substantial downside risk protection. They are either too fiscally conservative, too risky, or in some cases even both.

To illustrate the latter, consider a flat amount bettor with a starting bankroll of $1000 who decides to wager $20 (2% of his starting bankroll) on each play through a season. If, due to poor sports handicapping and/or bad luck, his funds were to decline by 50% to $500, his next $20 wager would constitute 4% of his bankroll. On the other hand, if he doubled his original bankroll to $2000, his next $20 wager would only be a capital risk of 1%. Flat sports gambling systems or any such schemes that result in incrementally higher-percentage wagers the more you lose and incrementally lower-percentage wagers the more you win, quickly compound losses and diminish gains.

Simply put, it's a fiscal failure.

Percentage Sports Gambling Systems

PRO INFO SPORTS Money Management applies the superior investing principle of wagering a percentage of available capital rather than a constant flat dollar amount. Some "pros" try to combine the opposing theories by advising that a flat amount determined by a set percentage of a starting bankroll be wagered on games until the total funds are increased or decreased to a degree (50%, for example), at which point the flat amount is recalculated from the set percentage of the new bankroll amount.

This is only a slight improvement on the aforementioned pure flat sports gambling system plan since, after the first wager is either won or lost in such a scenario, the distinct advantage of percentage betting is lost. The inherent flaw of flat betting (increasingly higher-percentage wagers the more money lost, and increasingly lower-percentage wagers the more money won) is then forced into effect. The illogical disparity only increases until the static percentage is finally recalculated from the new bankroll and not the one of days, weeks, or even months ago.

Since percentage wagering is clearly superior to flat sports gambling systems, it is most financially favorable to reconcile the fixed percentage of bankroll before each wager to avoid the mistaken use of a flat betting scheme for any number of games.

Having established the superiority of percentage wagering over any type of flat sports gambling system, the consideration becomes one of determining what percentage is ideal and whether it ever varies from game to game.

Many percentage bettors incorrectly presume that a winning percentage above 52.5% (the break even point due to the 10% sportsbook "vigorish") will ultimately return a profit regardless of what bankroll percentage is invested, as long as it is consistently and continually applied, and that with a better-than-52.5% winning percentage an increasingly higher percentage of bankroll wagered will produce increasingly larger profits. The potential financial pitfalls of this misconception can be illustrated by the following hypothetical gaming example: 

PICK YOUR PERCENTAGE

Two friends enter a casino and are intrigued by a new card game called "Pick Your Percentage". The game features a dealer taking a single deck of cards and turning the cards face-up, one at a time, while the players wager on each card.

To play, each bettor simply has to declare a starting bankroll and what constant percentage of his bankroll will be wagered on each card. All 10's, face cards, and aces are winners for the house while the cards numbered 2-9 are winners for the players; thus, out of 52 betting opportunities the players would be guaranteed 32 winners against only 20 losers for a 61.5% winning percentage.

The gentlemen sit down at the table to play through a deck. The first man declares a starting bankroll of $1000 and a wager of 25% of bankroll per card. The second bettor also declares a starting bankroll of $1000 but states he will risk 50% of his bankroll on each card, assuming he will at least double his friend's winnings.

After the dealer is finished going through the deck, the bettor risking 25% of his bankroll on each card has quadrupled his original bankroll and ends the game with over $4000. The bettor risking 50% of his bankroll on each card has lost more than half of his original $1000 bankroll and ends the game with a little over $400. This, despite the 2 bettors wagering on the same cards as they were turned up one by one.


What Happened?!

What the 50% bankroll bettor (and the average fan gambling on sports) failed to understand is that for the greatest return on any series of wagering opportunities there is a precise percentage of bankroll that should be risked. Even with more winners than losers, betting considerably more than the "magic number" will ultimately result in a net loss. At PRO INFO SPORTS we have named this ideal figure the "PEAK PROFIT PERCENTAGE" or "PPP". The sequence of winners and losers in the card game or even in sporting events have no bearing whatsoever on the results of the application of the PPP principle. Using the same percentages, the outcome will be the same every time, regardless of win-loss pattern.

The PRO INFO SPORTS Peak Profit Percentage is determined by the expected winning percentage for a series of wagering events. In the card game model, the anticipated winning percentage for 52 bets is 61.5% which has a corresponding PPP of 23%. Any percent of bankroll wagered less or more than 23% in such a scenario will not be as profitable, and gains are eventually turned into losses if the PPP is exceeded too greatly. This is why the card game's 25% player enjoyed a 400%+ ROI (Return On Investment), while the 50% bettor suffered a -50%+ ROI.

The Peak Profit Percentage concept can be a difficult one to comprehend but the numbers do not lie. All professional investors (stocks, bonds, sports wagering, etc.) should be mindful of this numerical phenomenon and use it to their profitable advantage.

Since the PRO INFO SPORTS Peak Profit Percentage is determined by anticipated winning percentage, having a realistic expectation in sports wagering is imperative. Those "scamdicappers" claiming long-term winning opinions of 67% or better should not be relied upon for sports handicapping or investment advice. Of course, these self-proclaimed experts would never suggest a gamble of anything near 28% of a bankroll on one of their "superlocks" or "games of the year", yet 28% is indeed the PPP for a 67% winning expectation. Is it plausible for these touts to be brilliant, borderline-psychic when it comes to handicapping sports but completely devoid of basic money management awareness? We find it much more likely that their true winning percentage is much, much lower than advertised.

At PRO INFO SPORTS we are confident that we will to continue to offer our clients a winning expectation of 55%-60%. Looking at the figures within that range, a Peak Profit Percentage of 5% can be calculated from the low end (55% winners) and a PPP of 15% at the high end (60% winners). Taking the riskiest position with a $1000 bankroll (wagering 15% per game) would actually result in a net loss of $348 after 100 events if the winning percentage actually turned out to be at the low end of 55%. A sports investor should never be penalized for "only" producing 55% winners. On the other hand, taking the most conservative position (5% wagers) with a $1000 bankroll will show a profit after 100 games, ranging from $148 (with 55% winners) to $944 (60% winners), so we find that there is no overall advantage of risking more than 5% of current bankroll on even the strongest of our expert sports picks and selections.

Applying the same investment principles to our remaining sports picks which have a slightly lower (but still profitable) winning expectation, we have developed the following Money Play STAR SELECTION RATING SYSTEM with corresponding PPPs:

STAR SELECTION RATING SYSTEM

Money Play PPP
7 STARS 5%
6 1/2 STARS 4.75%
6 STARS 4.5%
5 1/2 STARS 4.25%
5 STARS 4%
4 1/2 STARS 3.75%
4 STARS 3.5%
3 1/2 STARS 3.25%
3 STARS 3%
2 1/2 STARS 2.75%
2 STARS 2.5%
1 1/2 STARS 2.25%
1 STARS 2%

On days with a very limited schedule we usually at least offer an Opinion Selection sports pick with the usual comprehensive sports handicapping information, analysis, and advice if no investment opportunities are rated high enough to be a STAR SELECTION. These are recreational wagers on marginal games; therefore, no more than 1% of current bankroll should be wagered on any such contest. Opinion Selections do not count as official PRO INFO SPORTS selections and can certainly passed on altogether.

Other "advisors", oblivious to the Peak Profit Percentage principle, contend that only 1% should ever be wagered on any game, and that anything more than that is much too risky. We simply refer them to the laws of mathematics.

For example, wagering 5% per event on the 7 STAR SELECTIONS will only be a losing proposition if their winning percentage slides down to 53%, at which point a starting bankroll of $1000 would still only be trimmed by $70 after 100 wagers. Placing 1% wagers against a starting bankroll of $1000 with a 53% winning percentage would show a profit of only $8 after 100 events. This is just not enough of a difference to warrant nothing but 1% wagers, especially considering the upside of higher winning percentages with higher percent wagers.

A winning percentage of 52.5% or less will not show a profit regardless of how small the bankroll percent wagered is, so we find that there is no overall advantage of risking just 1% on every game. This is the comprehensive and analytical manner in which PRO INFO SPORTS narrowed the recommended investment amounts for our Money Plays to 2-5% of current bankroll.

Obviously it would be most profitable for every game to rate highly enough to be a 7 STAR SELECTION and wagered accordingly; however, this is not the reality in handicapping sports. Actually, only a few opportunities are ideal enough to earn that distinction, and only playing such contests would not offer the best potential for long-term monetary gains. Profitability in sports handicapping and investing is realized through the consistent and constant compounding of modest gains, not via a high winning percentage over a few games.

One difference between the previous card game scenario and sports wagering is that while there was only one betting event at a time at the card table, there will quite often be multiple sports investment opportunities available at the same time. After determining that 2-5% of current bankroll is the PRO INFO SPORTS PPP to wager per event, we resolved the question of how many such events would be financially prudent to wager simultaneously. It was calculated that putting to work up to 25% of a bankroll at one time on a consistent basis offers the greatest potential for compounding profits without being unnecessarily risky if enough worthy investment opportunities are available.

Due to the sharp sports odds put up by the linesmakers, the majority of selections will be made from the lower half of the STAR RATING SYSTEM scale. We use this to our advantage by employing the multiple lower-rated selections as hedge investments against the few higher-rated selections and vice-versa. The Money Plays that risk a higher bankroll percentage are properly balanced by the more numerous lower-bankroll percentage investments. The following gaming analogy demonstrates the importance of such a strategy:

Don't Lose Your Marbles

Imagine 7 barrels, each containing 1000 marbles. The first barrel has 600 marbles marked "WINNER" and 400 marbles marked "LOSER". Each successive barrel has 10 fewer WINNER marbles and, thus, 10 more LOSER marbles. The last barrel would have a slimmest majority of WINNERS (540) and highest number of LOSERS (460).

As in sports handicapping and gaming, the object for a player is to win as much money as possible in the shortest amount of time by wagering on and selecting WINNER marbles.

To truly imitate wagering conditions we must also stipulate that the bettor is allowed incrementally more wagering chances with the barrels that contain a higher percentage of LOSERS. We can use the Peak Profit Percentage principle to determine what the proper bankroll wager would be for each of the barrels, which is what we have done with our STAR RATING SYSTEM; however, the question remains of how many bets to make on each barrel.

The proper PPP on the barrels with 60% WINNERS should be wagered as often as allowed by the rules; however, while there is a 60% chance that the first marble selected from that barrel will be a WINNER, there is also a corresponding 40% chance it will be a LOSER. If a total of only 10 marbles are allowed to be taken from the barrel, 60% of them "should" be WINNERS; however, 10 marbles out of 1000 is a scant 1% sample and any combination of WINNER and LOSER marbles is quite possible.

To increase the chances of drawing the same percentage of WINNERS as actually exist in any of the barrels, a higher number of marbles must be drawn. If the number of marbles allowed to be selected increase successively from the barrel with 60% WINNER marbles to the barrel with 54% WINNER marbles, so must the wagers. If 900 marbles are allowed to be selected from the barrel containing just 540 WINNER marbles, a winning advantage very close to 54% is nearly guaranteed.

The greedy bettor will "play the lottery" with only the few marbles he gets to select from the barrel with 60% WINNERS and hope he gets lucky with high bankroll bets. This is like a sports gaming investor who only plays a highest-rated play or 2 each week.

Meanwhile, the risk-adverse bettor will wager the minimal amount on all of the marbles and have to be satisfied with a very small profit. This is like a sports gaming investor who will only play a very small percentage of bankroll over many games each week.

The balanced investor will implement the best of both strategies, using the proper PPPs to make higher bankroll percentage wagers on a select few games and lower bankroll percentage wagers over a greater number of games.


This balanced investor stands the best chance of showing the biggest profit over the shortest amount of time because of the lower-rated selections acting as a hedge against the higher-rated selections and vice-versa in case one of them does not return a profit. Utilizing our Peak Profit Percentages and STAR RATING SYSTEM, this is precisely what the PRO INFO SPORTS Money Management strategy is designed to do, and why it is important for clients to invest in all recommended Money Plays at the recommended bankroll percentage.

We feature up to 10 Money Plays per investment "session". Some days we may even have more than one session, such as a Saturday with early, afternoon, and late college football and basketball games. As previously stated, on days with a very limited schedule, we try to at least offer an Opinion Selection with the usual comprehensive sports handicapping information, analysis, and advice if no investment opportunities are rated high enough to be a STAR SELECTION.

It must always be remembered that handicapping sports and wagering is to be approached In a professional manner. Sports handicappers and investors must be mentally and emotionally prepared for the ups and downs that will occur simply due to the laws of averages that are inherent with any type of investing. We are supremely confident that putting our Money Management strategy to work with our sports handicapping information, analysis, and advice will be a rewarding and enjoyable sports investment venture for those using our Sports Handicapping Services.

FREE SPORTS PICKS, FREE SPORTS HANDICAPPING SYSTEMS & FREE TIPS

Get FREe-LERTs with free sports picks, FREe-PLAYs with sports handicapping systems, and free sports handicapping tips!

Enter your first name & e-mail address below and click "Subscribe".


First Name:


E-mail Address:




HTML: Yes No

SPORTS HEADLINES